The 2024 presidential election has drawn attention to the significant role of media coverage and communication strategies in shaping voter perceptions and turnout. In light of emerging technologies and evolving campaign tactics, Scott Althaus, director of the Cline Center for Advanced Social Research at the University of Illinois, has studied the impact of these elements on electoral outcomes.
In his discussions, Althaus expressed concerns regarding the effects of premature electoral projections on voter turnout. He noted that this issue has been a point of contention in U.S. elections for many years. Althaus elaborated on the evolving nature of campaign strategies, stating, “It’s moved much more towards mobilizing like-minded voters who already agree with one candidate … that’s happened over the last 30 years in the U.S., and we’ve become very politically polarized.”
Emerging campaigns have identified younger voters as a demographic with significant potential for engagement. According to Governance Studies at Brookings, these individuals are more susceptible to persuasive messaging on social media, primarily due to their limited political experience. Althaus remarked that advancements in early and absentee voting might mitigate the impact that early projections could have on overall turnout. He stated, “A higher proportion of potential voters have already cast their ballot by the time we get to the late hours before the polls close.”
Despite these advancements, the possibility of influencing traditional voters during critical moments remains. Kaushik Pulgari, a senior in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, expressed concerns about the overwhelming amount of information available during election season. “It’s so easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer volume of information, especially when it feels like some outlets prioritize being first over being accurate,” he said. Pulgari reflected that constant updates, particularly from betting websites and social media, sometimes made him question the worth of enduring long voting lines.
This discourse gained urgency following a significant error made by a local ABC affiliate, WNEP-TV, which mistakenly broadcasted simulated election results depicting Vice President Kamala Harris defeating President-elect Donald Trump in Pennsylvania—a critical swing state—prior to Election Day. The graphic displayed Harris commanding 52% of the vote against Trump’s 47%, leading to confusion among viewers. The station later clarified that the results were randomly generated during a routine equipment test and did not reflect actual votes. Nevertheless, this incident sparked a wave of conspiracy theories regarding election integrity across social media platforms.
Jack LaMorte, another senior in LAS and president of Illini Republicans, commented on the potential ramifications of such premature broadcasts on voter confidence, particularly in pivotal states like Pennsylvania. “I don’t really think there’s any nefarious meaning behind what they did,” LaMorte articulated. “I don’t think they’re trying to really sway voters … They were probably just testing a graphic. Honestly, it could dissuade voters from showing up to the polls. If they think that … that’s how the election will go.”
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into campaign strategies marks a transformative shift in political communication. This technology enables campaigns to create tailored messages rapidly, allowing for multiple variations to be tested and optimized. Althaus noted, “It remains to be seen what differences AI-created content will make … This has been the first presidential election where AI-created content played a fairly substantial role.”
Despite the complexities introduced by emerging technologies and early projections, Althaus posited that the actual influence of these factors is generally minimal and can be alleviated by trends such as increased early voting. He reinforced the importance of comprehensive analysis through survey data and longitudinal studies to fully understand the implications of these developments on democratic practices and voter engagement.
Source: Noah Wire Services