Equilibrium Research has released its inaugural annual prediction report, outlining anticipated developments and trends in the blockchain industry for the upcoming year. Compiled by the laboratory and venture capital department, this report charts a course towards how technology might evolve and impact business practices by the end of 2025.
The methodology employed in these predictions emphasises relevance, specificity, and falsifiability. Notably, it eschews vague generalities or price speculations in favour of concrete forecasts grounded in professional expertise related to the infrastructure of decentralized networks. Consequently, topics such as applications, stablecoins, and decentralized finance are excluded from the scope of this report.
Among the report's predictions is the expectation that the number of scalability solutions on Ethereum (L2 and L3) will rise exponentially, surpassing 2,000 by the end of 2025, compared to the 120 currently listed on L2Beat. This surge is attributed to a dual focus on specialised scalability solutions tailored to various applications and larger enterprise-scale L2 solutions from established companies entering the blockchain space.
The scalability factor of Ethereum is expected to increase substantially, projected to exceed 200 times its current capacity, which stands at approximately 25 times. This growth reflects both user demand and enhances the scalability capabilities of Ethereum's foundational infrastructure, signalling the success of its ongoing rollup-centric strategy.
Transcending current processing limits, Solana's transaction capacity for non-voting transactions is anticipated to exceed 5,000 transactions per second (TPS), driven by rising demands in sectors such as decentralised finance and meme coin speculation. Significant upgrades, including the rollout of the Firedancer client and other performance optimisations, are essential to attain this milestone.
A noteworthy shift is anticipated in how data from Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions are managed, with over 80% expected to be published to alternative data availability (DA) layers by 2025. This raises the current proportion from about 35%, illustrating an increasing trend towards leveraging various data storage methodologies, likely spurred by the capabilities of high-throughput rollups.
In the race between scaling technologies, the report hints at the growing preeminence of zero-knowledge (ZK) based solutions over their optimistic counterparts, predicting that ZK solutions will comprise more than 50% of the market deployment by the end of 2025. This is attributed to advancements in ZK proof technology which provide faster, more efficient verifications and interoperability guarantees.
On the topic of user experience, the report anticipates significant developments in how blockchain transactions will be managed. A movement toward chain abstraction is expected, allowing over 25% of on-chain transactions to be executed without users needing to know the underlying blockchain. This could simplify user interactions and enable broader adoption among less technically inclined individuals.
In the realm of privacy, Equilibrium's report asserts that interest in privacy-focused blockchain applications will begin to mimic the rapid uptake seen with AI technologies, such as ChatGPT. The report suggests that enhanced privacy solutions will soon become integral to business operations, especially in areas where transparency creates significant risks to personal safety and competitive advantage.
Moreover, the advent of decentralised proof networks is expected to facilitate a shift towards a more decentralised approach to generating zero-knowledge proofs. By the end of 2025, it is predicted that over 90% of these proofs across various blockchains will be decentralised, leading to increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
Finally, the report suggests that organisational transitions towards new consensus mechanisms, such as Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG), will commence, potentially reshaping network structure and enhancing operational efficiency.
As the report outlines these predictions, it reflects a broader trend of technological innovation and exponential growth within the blockchain industry, hinting at the exciting future possibilities that these advancements may foster in business landscapes and beyond.
Source: Noah Wire Services