DHL, in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business, has released the latest edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, which details the current trends and future outlooks on globalization. The Tracker indicates that, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, the state of globalization remains near its historical peak, signifying a notable resilience in international trade and economic integration.
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, an expansion of the DHL Global Connectedness Report, evaluates cross-border flows of trade, capital, information, and people. The present score of 25% illustrates that while globalization is at a high point, complete interconnectivity is still some way off. This recent tool enables users to delve into specific trends based on region, geopolitical alignment, or individual nations, along with features for data downloads and chart exports for more intricate offline analysis.
In 2023, international trade constituted 21% of global goods and services, edging close to the peak of 22%. John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, remarked that although the global environment is increasingly complex, the advantages provided by international trade are steadfast, facilitating growth for individuals, businesses, and nations.
The report brings to light significant shifts in trade dynamics amidst rising geopolitical rivalries. The trade volume between the United States and China has notably declined, decreasing from 3.5% of global goods trade in 2016 to an estimated 2.6% by 2024. In contrast, nations that align as global trade connectors—such as the UAE, India, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico—are witnessing increased trading proportions. The share of trade involving these “unaligned” countries has seen an uptick from 42% in 2016 to 47% in 2024, illustrating their emerging role in reshaping global trade patterns.
Contrary to speculations that U.S. tariff implementations and a shift towards regionalization might impact trade, the Tracker's data suggests a different narrative. The distance goods travel has reached unprecedented levels, averaging 4,970 kilometers in early 2024, while intra-regional trade has decreased to its lowest level ever at 51%. This contradicts the notion of a widespread trend towards regional trade.
Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, emphasised the necessity of employing data to navigate the trajectory of globalization, particularly in these uncertain times. He expressed that international flows have consistently shown adaptability and resilience, with firms and nations actively seeking innovative pathways to preserve the benefits derived from globalization.
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, which has been systematically updated since its establishment in 2011, utilises over eight million data points to deliver an extensive analysis of globalization trends. The November 2024 update introduces more accessible tools for analysing and visualising these trends, making it a valuable resource for policymakers, businesses, and academics alike.
Source: Noah Wire Services