Elon Musk is once again making headlines as he navigates various personal and professional pursuits in 2024, including his political involvement and ongoing promises regarding Tesla's future innovations. While Musk's influence on the political landscape is noteworthy, particularly in his efforts supporting Donald Trump's bid for the presidency, his commitments to Tesla's technological advancements are drawing equal attention.
Over the years, Musk's ambitious declarations regarding Tesla have often coincided with missed deadlines, creating a complex narrative for both investors and the automotive industry. The company's value has soared, with a staggering market capitalization of approximately $1.3 trillion, largely due to Musk's persuasive promises. For instance, in 2015 he asserted that Tesla vehicles would achieve full self-driving capabilities within two years and that cross-country driverless trips would be a reality by the end of 2017. However, many of these claims have yet to materialize, leading to scepticism about future projections.
In 2024 alone, Musk has made several significant promises regarding Tesla's vehicle offerings. A notable pledge involved a $25,000 electric vehicle (EV), which was later scrapped to focus on robotaxi development. During Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Musk remarked that producing a low-cost EV with traditional steering mechanisms was "pointless" and that the chance of an affordable model being realised was minimal. “All of the company’s cars moving forward would be autonomous,” he stated, revealing his vision for a future dominated by self-driving vehicles.
Tesla has also officially confirmed the planned production of a purpose-built robotaxi, dubbed the Cybercab, aiming to commence in 2025 or 2026, as demonstrated during a recent event in Hollywood where prototypes were unveiled. Musk stated that the anticipated sale price for the Cybercab would be under $30,000, with operational costs potentially dropping to just $0.20 per mile. Despite Musk’s optimistic forecasts, previous declarations about mass production of robotaxis have not materialised, with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's new safety standards posing regulatory challenges.
Additionally, during the same event, Tesla showcased a prototype of a Robovan, yet details on its expected release remain elusive. Musk's stated goal is to develop an "unsupervised" version of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in 2025, potentially rolling out an autonomous ride-hail service by then in areas like California and Texas. This follows a commitment to include self-driving capabilities in its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. Current developments involving the FSD feature still require driver supervision, and the lack of clarity surrounding the term "unsupervised" raises questions about the safety and regulatory implications of such technology.
In a forward-looking vision, Musk expressed plans to have over 1,000 units of Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, operational by 2025. He stated that limited production of Optimus is projected to begin next year, with sales anticipated for 2026. The functionality of these robots, whether they will operate autonomously or under human control, remains unspecified, although the prospect of having humanoid robots contributing to various industries comes into play.
Throughout these ambitious projections, Musk has indicated that the onset of advanced robotics could lead to a monumental shift in Tesla's financial trajectory, suggesting that Optimus could eventually elevate Tesla's market cap to an unprecedented $25 trillion. With Tesla closing 2023 with a valuation around $1.42 trillion, this projection represents a substantial increase.
As Tesla continues to pioneer discussions surrounding AI and automation technologies, attention will persist on the feasibility of Musk’s ambitious commitments and the broader implications for the automotive industry and beyond.
Source: Noah Wire Services