The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently released an update on the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), revealing that in 2023, global SAF production reached one million tonnes, marking a doubling of output compared to the previous year. SAF now represents 0.3% of global jet fuel production and accounts for 11% of the overall renewable fuel market. This development reflects a cautious trajectory in the expansion of SAF, which is viewed as a critical component in the aviation industry's efforts to decarbonise.
In remarks made to Simple Flying, General Willie Walsh, Director of IATA, indicated that governmental policies play a significant role in the acceleration of SAF production. He suggested that removing subsidies for fossil fuel production could pave the way for a more robust system of incentives directed towards renewables, including SAF. Walsh commented, “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly... airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonization.”
Forecasts suggest that by 2024, SAF production is expected to reach 1.5 million tonnes, with projections of 2.1 million tonnes by 2025, representing 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity. However, these numbers are notably lower than previous estimates, attributed partly to the postponement of key SAF production facilities in the United States who have delayed anticipated increases in output.
The reporting emphasises that while current trends in SAF production are underwhelming, the necessity for robust government policies cannot be overstated. Walsh noted that a successful transition to SAF will require concrete policy incentives that can accelerate the production of renewable energy and help fulfil decarbonization targets. He stated, “Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production.”
IATA analysis has indicated that achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in aviation by 2050 would necessitate the establishment of over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants. These facilities are expected not only to contribute to aviation but also to produce fuels that can be utilised in other sectors, such as transportation and manufacturing. Financial projections estimate that new facilities would require an annual capital expenditure of approximately $128 billion over 30 years, representing a significant reduction compared to past investment levels in renewable energy.
In order to bolster the SAF market, several measures have been proposed. These include increased co-processing capabilities at existing refineries, which can integrate renewable feedstocks into traditional production lines, and the diversification of SAF production techniques. Currently, the hydrotreated esters fatty acids (HEFA) method dominates the SAF landscape, accounting for roughly 80% of production.
SAF is designed to be compatible with existing jet engine technology, providing airlines with the flexibility to reduce emissions without overhauling current infrastructure. Producing SAF from non-petroleum feedstocks, such as agricultural waste or used oils, allows for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, up to 94% when compared to conventional jet fuel.
As of now, several airlines have entered agreements with current and emerging SAF producers to secure a steady fuel supply. In the United States, notable producers include World Energy and Neste, with operations expanding across various airports.
A recent IATA survey indicated a notable public consensus, with a significant majority of travellers supporting government incentives for SAF production. Such public backing highlights the increasing awareness regarding the sustainability of air travel and the expectations placed on the aviation industry to adopt greener practices.
In conclusion, while current production rates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel display incremental growth, the path toward widespread usage in the aviation sector hinges on proactive governmental policies, investments in renewable fuel infrastructures, and the establishment of a global SAF market. The forward-looking nature of these developments paints a complex yet hopeful picture for the future of aviation and its role in the energy transition.
Source: Noah Wire Services