m1nd-set, a Swiss-based research agency, has released its 2025 Annual Forecast Report for global air traffic, revealing significant insights into international passenger trends. The report anticipates that global passenger numbers will reach 4.22 billion in 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.3% from the figures projected for 2024. This upsurge marks a remarkable recovery trajectory for the air travel industry, as passenger numbers have consistently risen since 2021, quadrupling over five years from a mere 1.05 billion in 2021.
The analysis indicates a notable shift in the dynamics of air travel, with emerging markets in Asia, notably China, India, and South Korea, increasingly dominating international passenger traffic. By 2025, China is expected to ascend into the top five markets for international travellers, underscoring the expanding influence of the Asia Pacific region. Meanwhile, Europe, which has traditionally contributed the largest share of international traffic, will see its dominance wane. The report projects that Europe will accommodate nearly 2 billion passengers in 2025, but its share of global traffic is set to decline from nearly 60% in 2021 to 46.9%.
Asia Pacific is highlighted as the region exhibiting the most robust growth, with its share of global air traffic projected to rise from 6% in 2021 to 25.5% in 2025. This growth is attributed to a variety of factors including post-pandemic recovery, economic development, and improved connectivity. The region is forecasted to surpass 1 billion passengers by 2025.
In North America, steady traffic growth is anticipated, with projections indicating 442 million passengers in 2025. However, its global share will see a slight reduction to 10.5%. The Middle East is also predicted to experience a decline in its market share, dropping from 8.3% in 2022 to 7.3% by 2025, while accommodating 310 million passengers. Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to surpass 250 million passengers, though like the Middle East, their share of global traffic will decrease from 9.4% in 2021 to just over 6% in 2025. Furthermore, Africa will experience growth from 54 million passengers in 2021 to 152 million in 2025, yet its share of global traffic will decline from 5.2% to 3.6%.
The report also details diverse recovery patterns in global airport rankings. Major hubs in Europe and the Middle East such as London Heathrow and Dubai continue to lead in international air traffic. Conversely, airports in Asia Pacific, including Singapore Changi and Seoul Incheon, are rapidly rising in prominence following the post-pandemic resurgence. While European airports like Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol are expected to secure the 5th and 6th positions respectively for international air traffic by 2025, the shifting landscape underscores the evolving nature of global travel hubs.
Accompanying the analysis of air traffic trends, m1nd-set’s report emphasises the shifting behaviour of international shoppers. Drawing insights from interviews with over 250,000 consumers globally, the agency highlights a growing preference for experiential retail and digital interaction among travellers. Dr. Peter Mohn, the agency’s owner and CEO, reiterated the importance of curating the travel retail environment effectively to encourage consumer engagement and purchases. He emphasised the need for meticulously designed touchpoints throughout the entire shopper journey, from airport settings to in-store experiences, in order to create a captivating and memorable encounter.
The insights from m1nd-set's report reveal a landscape of change and opportunity within the air travel and retail sectors as it approaches 2025, underscoring the necessity for stakeholders to remain vigilant and responsive to these emerging trends and shifting consumer behaviours.
Source: Noah Wire Services