As the landscape of social media continues to evolve rapidly, marketers and businesses are bracing for significant changes leading into 2025. According to Stephen Faulkner, director of research and analytics at global creative collective Forsman & Bodenfors New York, “the social media landscape of 2025 will be a difficult place for brands to navigate, harder to monitor, and therefore less appealing to sink resources into.” This represents a notable concern as fragmentation within the marketing channels widens further.
Despite these challenges, social media advertising expenditure is forecasted to rise substantially, with projections estimating a reach of over $82 billion in 2025, a jump from $75 billion expected for 2024, as reported by Statista. A majority of this ad spend is anticipated to flow towards established platforms like Meta, which is likely to capture more than 80% of the total budget. This leaves emerging players such as TikTok, Pinterest, Bluesky, and Lemon8 competing for dwindling shares of the market.
The fragmentation of social media is not a new phenomenon; however, what is alarming to marketers is the growing volatility and polarization associated with emerging competitors. With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, these shifts are amplifying existing challenges among brands regarding their marketing allocations. Holly Willis, founder and CEO of Magic Camp, emphasised the financial constraints faced by brands, stating, “There’s so much less discretionary dollars to spend now. There used to be a lot more innovation budget where you could try stuff out and play stuff. I just don’t see those as much.”
The uncertain environment has led marketers to pivot towards performance marketing platforms while prioritising owned assets to mitigate reliance on third-party platforms. Edelman’s Robin Sacawa has reported that some clients are now focusing on their first-party data using SMS and email campaigns to secure more control. Furthermore, agencies like Magic Camp suggest that brands invest in influencer marketing for a consistent brand presence across the fragmented landscape, a strategy being received with increasing interest.
The swift rise of niche platforms such as Threads and BeReal has created a complex dynamics within the social media ecosystem. Although TikTok remains a dominant force, its future hangs in the balance due to possible regulatory actions. Marketers are now weighing their options, with 26% of them globally intending to reduce their spending on X, formerly known as Twitter, due to a barrage of brand safety issues and legal complications.
In this ever-unfolding scenario, insights from experts highlight a systematic approach by agencies which are beginning to employ “scenario planning” to navigate the economic landscape and its implications on ad spending. CJ Jammet, managing director at Gather, articulated the hesitancy brands are experiencing in relation to their budgets, stating, “There’s so much uncertainty, and I wouldn’t be looking to blow my budget in Q1 not knowing all the things.”
As brands are confronted with heightened competition and an unpredictable environment, the focus remains squarely on optimising advertising dollars. Donna Sharp from MediaLink emphasises that the bulk of the advertising spend currently resides with Meta and Google, propelled by their established performance metrics. She stated, “At the end of the day, the vast majority of the dollar that’s being spent with Google and Meta is based on performance.”
In summary, as businesses head into 2025, the social media landscape is anticipated to remain fragmented and increasingly challenging. Marketers are likely to adapt their strategies, focusing on performance and owned platforms while cautiously experimenting with emerging technologies and networks.
Source: Noah Wire Services