Recent advancements in generative AI technology are poised to transform the landscape of geopolitical analysis within corporate environments and consultancies. The rise of these AI models is enabling analysts to delegate monotonous and labour-intensive tasks to machines, which in turn allows them to focus more on essential person-to-person interactions with clients. This shift comes at a critical time as organisations face increasingly complex geopolitical challenges in a multi-polar world.
Giles Alston, Deputy Director & Senior Analyst for North America, Australasia and Space at Oxford Analytica, highlights the early signs of this evolution and predicts a growing momentum as AI becomes more reliable and integral to business strategies. He notes that boards are increasingly seeking tailored insights that only direct dialogue with analysts can provide. The nature of intelligence derived from geopolitical developments is evolving into two main categories: actionable advice tailored to specific companies for navigating a volatile landscape and strategic support on a range of operational issues, including market exploration and supply chain management.
Historically, the role of analysts gained prominence during the post-Cold War globalisation era of the 1990s, as firms turned to these experts to understand new geopolitical dynamics. Initially, the function was characterised by high-level assessments of international relations, primarily communicated in written reports with limited direct contact with key decision-makers. Over time, as companies expanded internationally, the demands on analysts have broadened. They now navigate an array of multifaceted risks, including climate change, global technology trends, and security threats. Consequently, the time dedicated to client engagement diminished as analysts were required to address a plethora of emerging threats.
However, the capabilities of generative AI present analysts with an opportunity to enhance the value they provide to executive teams. Alston emphasizes that the increasing volatility of the global environment, marked by challenges such as supply chain disruptions, digital sabotage, and operational threats from non-state actors, necessitates this shift in focus. Companies specifically require in-depth, real-time counsel as they grapple with pressing issues like cybercrime, environmental crises, and geopolitical instability.
The continuing tensions resulting from deglobalisation underline the urgency with which multinationals must make strategic decisions. Analysts are crucial in helping companies navigate these uncharted waters, offering insights that are essential for understanding and mitigating risks in unstable regions. Economic dynamics, particularly in relation to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, have propelled companies to consider supply chain diversification strategies more seriously. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to impact these factors significantly, as companies may begin to prioritise nearshoring and reshoring tactics to mitigate the effects of anticipated tariffs.
The role of the analyst is evolving to encompass not just risk assessment but also advising clients on the viability of their strategic plans and facilitating innovative approaches to business challenges. AI tools enable analysts to fill knowledge gaps by allowing them to collaborate with specialists from various fields, thus creating a more comprehensive threat landscape assessment.
To succeed in this new environment, analysts will need to develop strong communication and interpersonal skills, alongside their traditional subject matter expertise. They are increasingly expected to relate to and support executives during crises, tailoring their assessments to be actionable and valuable. This requirement for a nuanced understanding of both the geopolitical context and the unique pressures faced by business leaders adds complexity to the analyst’s role.
As analysts engage more directly with decision-makers, they must carefully manage relationships to prevent becoming overwhelmed by requests for detailed guidance. This engagement is not without its challenges, as the complexities of client needs can lead to heightened expectations regarding the assistance they can provide. Those embedded within organisations may have an advantage due to their familiarity with company-specific operations and challenges.
In conclusion, the integration of generative AI into the field of geopolitical analysis is not heralding the end of human input but rather enhancing the analyst's role significantly. As businesses confront unprecedented challenges, the capacity to deliver tailored, in-depth analysis will become increasingly crucial, positioning analysts as trusted advisors and collaborators in navigating a turbulent global landscape.
Source: Noah Wire Services